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本次疫情比SARS更严重?来看看最新的数据分析

原标题:本次疫情比SARS更严重?来看看我们最新的数据分析

新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情防控正在全面推进,但疫情仍处于扩散阶段,局部地区有迅速上升趋势。

截至1月29日,全国累计报告确诊病例超过7700例,已超过2003年SARS的确诊病例数。

The novel coronavirus, or 2019-nCoV, is spreading quickly in China, especially in the origin city of Wuhan。

As of January 29, more than 7,700 people have been infected by the virus – more than all the SARS patients in China back in 2003。

从图上来看,新冠病毒的传播速度更快,而且没有减缓的迹象。

但好消息是,钟南山院士预计,肺炎疫情或在“7至10天内”达到高峰,不会大规模地增加了。

The picture doesn‘t look good。 The new coronavirus is spreading faster and showing no signs of slowing down。

The claim that the “novel coronavirus is worse than SARS” has become more solid than three days ago, when we published the first analysis。

The good side is that a brake is being hit。 As estimated by Zhong Nanshan, the “SARS Hero” who helped to stop the outbreak of that viral respiratory disease in China in 2003, the novel coronavirus will reach its peak in “seven to 10 days。”

如果新冠病毒遵循SARS的传播模式,并且继续以目前的速度传播,那么预计10天内将有近1.2万人感染。但这只是一个非常粗略的估计。

It can be estimated that nearly 12,000 people will be infected in 10 days if the virus goes on spreading at the current speed and follows the SARS pattern。

This is a very rough estimate and shouldn‘t be treated as official information from the Chinese government。

中国疾控中心流行病学首席科学家曾光也表达了和钟南山相似的观点。他说,大概到农历正月十五(2月8日),应该能看到明显的成效。

他还表示,疫情拐点的出现,正是来自武汉人民的奉献,意味着武汉输出病例降低到最低,甚至降低到零。

Zhong‘s view was echoed by epidemiologist Zeng Guang, chief scientist and doctoral supervisor at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention。 “We will see great progress by January 15 on the Chinese lunar calendar (February 8 on the Gregorian calendar),” he told the Global Times’ Hu Xijin。

Zeng also said the turning point will appear early thanks to the efforts of the Wuhan people, who have been staying at home after a public transportation lockdown。

“This is a great chance and we need to find the patients who are out of Wuhan,” he added。

根据我们几天前发布的第一份数据分析报告,新型冠状病毒的致死率低于SARS。之前的数据显示,SARS的致死率约为10%,而新冠病毒的致死率不足5%。

而最新的数据显示,新冠病毒的致死率还在下滑。截至1月29日24时,国家卫生健康委收到31个省(自治区、直辖市)和新疆生产建设兵团累计报告确诊病例7711例,其中170例死亡。因此,其致死率大概略高于2%,这意味着每50个患者中可能只有一人死亡。

Last time, we said that the coronavirus is less lethal than SARS。 Data showed SARS has a mortality rate of roughly 10 percent; the coronavirus rate is less than half of that。

Now, with the new data considered, the rate has dropped even more。 Of the 7711, cases reported by January 29, 170 people have died。 So, the mortality rate is a bit more than two percent, meaning one in 50 patients may die。

从图中可以看出,患者死亡的速度似乎比一周前要快,似乎也快于SARS。

但患者们的状况也在转好,治愈出院病例已有124例。

But as shown in the picture, patients seem to be dying faster than a week ago。 The growth also seems to be faster than SARS at the same stage。

This is a new and potentially alarming trend。

What‘s more, the condition of patients is also getting better, with 124 people having recovered and left hospital in China。

也许有人会发现,新冠病毒感染的肺炎患者康复时间要比SARS患者看起来慢。

从上面这张SARS的分析图中,我们可以清楚地看到,感染病例(蓝色线条)和痊愈病例(红色线条)之间差距明显,这意味着治愈患者需要一些时间,可能是3到7周。因此新冠病毒肺炎患者可能也需一段时间才会逐渐康复。

Some may have noticed that the novel coronavirus patients seem to be recovering more slowly than SARS sufferers。

But from the SARS data we can clearly see a big gap between the infection (blue) and recovery (red) lines。 That means it takes some time to heal a patient, and the time can be three to seven weeks。

If that‘s also true for the coronavirus, it may still take weeks of devotion from the tireless and conscientious medical staff before most patients are cured。

世界卫生组织将再次召开会议,决定新冠病毒疫情是否已构成“国际突发公共卫生事件”。

SARS病毒和新冠病毒,你觉得哪一种更危险?

It‘s only a few days before the World Health Organization decides on whether to declare a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)。” 

Which of the two viruses – SARS or coronavirus – do you see as more dangerous? Share your opinion on our social media account or directly email us。

来源:央视